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Home Page : NEWS>International News
Coffee prices will increase thank to strong demand
According to General Director of Brazil Coffee Export Association, Guilherme Braga, coffee prices will increase again at the rate of about 1.30 to 1.50 USD / lb in the next 6 months if the global credit crisis softened, because consumption of coffee in the world will rise, leading by the demand from the emerging markets.
Mr. Guilherme Braga said that, the needs of coffee in Eastern Europe are very good. Consumption in Brazil in 2008 will increase about 4% that is relatively high.Consumption of coffee in Brazil plays an important role in promoting coffee consumption worldwide, because this market to grow very fast.
The term price of coffee in New York decreased to 34% from the highest price of 10 years 1.7190 USD / lb on 29/2/2008 down to the lowest level in 15 recent months at 1.0935 USD / lb on 8/10 because it was worry about credit crisis pulled down economic growth in the world, bringing about the demands of goods decreased. Now, the coffee prices are at 1,145 USD/ lb. The storage of coffee in stores at the Department of New York term transaction of goods is increasing, and export of coffee from Brazil, the largest coffee producing country in the world, also is increased.
However, the storage of coffee in the world, including the storage of import countries, is not increasing, because coffee farmers are adjusting output to balance supply - demand. At present, storage of coffee in the world is at 23-24 million bags (1bag = 60 kg = 132 lb) that are in average.
Exports of coffee of Brazil, including green coffee, instant coffee and roasted and ground coffee, is expected to fall 3.6% in the next year, even when the Real discounts compared with the USD, because coffee trees are in the cycle of low output - every 2 years once. In addition, higher fertilizer prices are also limited output. 
Exports of coffee from Brazil will drop to 27 million bags in the next year, compared with 28 million bags in this year. Coffee production in Brazil is expected to decrease to 40 - 42 million bags, compared with 45 million bags of this year. The difference in yield between high and low yield years is gradually narrowed, because the productivity of coffee is increasing with every passing day.
The Government of Brazil has been through a number of measures to prevent financial crisis, including the provision of more credit for manufacturers, traders and the enterprises of ground and roasted coffee. Coffee growers will not be able to maintain production if they do not receive the credits to pay wages to workers and the cost of others.
The Government of the producing countries as well as consumption countries is trying to prevent financial crisis, including the grant of credit to maintain production activities. Consumption of quality coffee and high price will certainly decrease if the economy of the world to be in degradation.
The import countries purchase 92 - 93 million bags of coffee each year, of which type of special coffee accounts for about 3 - 4%. Consumption of coffee with average quality will not be affected by economic changes at present.
Translated by C.L (Source: Vinanet)
- Last Updated : Thursday 11/06/2008 15:19(GMT+7)
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